LF · STL
Nathan Church — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Games
43
Home Runs
5
Per Game
0.12
Projection
0.05
Current Line
0.5
At a line of 0.5 (betonlineag), Nathan Church went over in 4 of 43 2026 games.
Our projection 0.05 vs market line 1 — edge -0.95.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 4/43 | 9% |
Share of 2026 games Church finished above each line.
Recent form
Last 10 avg
0.00
Season avg
0.12
Over 0.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Home (22)
0.14
Away (21)
0.10
Home edge
+0.04
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our v1 model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs TB | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs NYM | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs WSH | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-18 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs HOU | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MIA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-22 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs SEA | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-26 | vs SEA | 1 | Over |
| 2026-04-27 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-04 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs MIL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-08 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs SD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs PIT | 0 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Nathan Church’s full profile and methodology.