1B · TEX

Jake Burger — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games

Home Runs

Per Game

0.19

Projection

0.27

Current Line

—

Hit rate at common lines

Over	Cleared	Rate
0.5	8/47	17%

Share of 2026 games Burger finished above each line.

Last 10 avg

0.30

Season avg

0.19

Last-10 average vs the full-season pace — a quick read on whether the bat (or arm) is heating up or cooling off.

Home (19)

0.05

Away (28)

0.29

Home edge

-0.23

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our v1 model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Jake Burger’s full profile and methodology.