C · NYM

Francisco Alvarez — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games

Home Runs

Per Game

0.11

Projection

0.07

Current Line

—

Hit rate at common lines

Over	Cleared	Rate
0.5	3/36	8%

Share of 2026 games Alvarez finished above each line.

Last 10 avg

0.00

Season avg

0.11

Last-10 average vs the full-season pace — a quick read on whether the bat (or arm) is heating up or cooling off.

Home (17)

0.12

Away (19)

0.11

Home edge

+0.01

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our v1 model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Francisco Alvarez’s full profile and methodology.