3B · ATL
Austin Riley — Home Runs
2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.
Games
50
Home Runs
8
Per Game
0.16
Projection
0.22
Current Line
1.5
At a line of 1.5 (betonlineag), Austin Riley went over in 1 of 50 2026 games.
Our projection 0.22 vs market line 2 — edge -1.78.
Hit rate at common lines
| Over | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 7/50 | 14% |
Share of 2026 games Riley finished above each line.
Recent form
Last 10 avg
0.30
Season avg
0.16
Over 1.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.
Home / away splits
Home (24)
0.13
Away (26)
0.19
Home edge
-0.07
Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.
Projection is our v1 model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.
2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs
| Date | Opp | Home Runs | vs Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-28 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-29 | vs KC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-30 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-03-31 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-03 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-04 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-05 | vs AZ | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-07 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-08 | vs LAA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-10 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-11 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-12 | vs CLE | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-13 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-14 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-15 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-04-17 | vs PHI | 2 | Over |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-19 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-20 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-21 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-22 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-23 | vs WSH | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-24 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-25 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-26 | vs PHI | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-28 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-29 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-04-30 | vs DET | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-02 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-03 | vs COL | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-05 | vs SEA | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-06 | vs SEA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-09 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-10 | vs LAD | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-12 | vs CHC | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-13 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-14 | vs CHC | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-15 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-16 | vs BOS | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-17 | vs BOS | 1 | Under |
| 2026-05-18 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-19 | vs MIA | 0 | Under |
| 2026-05-20 | vs MIA | 1 | Under |
Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Austin Riley’s full profile and methodology.